Common Sense Trading - A Blue Jeans Approach to Philippine Stock Market Trading

U.S. Free Fall The dow is on a free fall. Having already fallen below 9000, analysts believe it may even fall to the 7500 level. PSEi & Asian Markets join the fall The PSEi closed today at 2097.80, down a whopping 190.64 points with trade value at a little over Php3B. Why are the markets moving down so quickly? As far as the dow and other American indexes are concerned, I understand why. The credit crunch is really taking its toll on their economy. But what is really puzzling for me is that Asia has been joining in the nosedive. I haven't come across a compelling argument that Asia will fall into a recession. China and Japan I know that China is feeling the heat now but the consensus among economists points to a slowdown not a recession. If there will be a country in Asia to go into recession, I think it would be Japan. Simply because of their close ties to the U.S. and the major effect that the negative numbers in the automotive industry will have on their economy as a whole. ...

The PSEi closed today at 2288.44. Maybe tomorrow we'll be in the green again as the index is down by a lot less than yesterday. Volume is still around the Php2B mark at Php2.236B. I found it ironic that the financial index was the only one that went up today.

Recession is really worrying Asia. The theory is that middle income emerging economies will join the economic problems of the U.S. Is the Philippines included? The numbers seem to lean on a resounding yes. I think the fundamentals are different however. As far as banking and real estate is concerned, I think the lessons learned back in 1997 are still clear. The industry players have adjusted so as not to let history repeat itself. Note also that we can probably still count on large remittances from our biggest export, labor. This will keep our foreign reserves strong. It is well to note that our OFWs send dollars because its convenient but if need be they can send a host of other currencies. While certain agricultural exports will get weaker as U.S. based demand wanes, we're still seeing growing demand from other parts of the world. This logic may even be stretched to other areas of Philippine exports. While China and India have monopolized the spotlight as new and strong sources o...

The worries of worldwide recession are resurfacing. Value turnover was P2.3B, with the PSEi closing at 2424.29. Other Asian markets made a bit of a turnaround today after the Bank of Australia cut their interest rates by 100 basis points but the FTSE was down by over 400 points. The Nikkei fell below 10,000 at one point. The French market saw its biggest single day drop. The Dow Jones closed below 10,000 points. ...maybe -73ish isn't so bad. Hehe.

World markets moved down today. The PSEi was no exception. The Philippine market index closed at 2499.53. It appears that the actual implementation of the U.S. bailout was not as impressive as when it was still a plan being hatched. On the bright side, Oil fell below $92. That should be good for our inflation. I hope our pump prices go down to the low forties very soon.