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Bear Market Conviction for Crypto

A bear market isn’t fun.  Nobody likes watching their portfolio values go down.  But there is opportunity if one were to have enough conviction.  I’ve heard many times, and from very experienced investors, that ‘bear markets make you rich’ as opposed to bull markets that can ‘make you some money’.  I’m trying to take that advise along with something else I heard: flip the unit of measure and count the value of the portfolio in BTC value (rather than fiat).  So, the theory I’m gravitating to is to use ‘cost averaging’ by buying small amounts of crypto daily.   Why daily? Well, I think of it like drinking coffee in the morning or reading the paper.  I think by buying daily, I will maintain a good ‘feel’ of how the price is moving since I’ll be checking it daily.  Besides, who wants to check the price in a bear market.  I need an excuse.  The hard part with cost averaging in a bear market is that the fiat value of the portfolio is almost always lower than what I put in!  So, that’s why I
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ECQ (Enhanced Community Quarantine) = buying opportunity

 This may be an unpopular thing to say:  those who believe in the resiliency of the Philippine economy and in particular Philippine companies have a bit of an opportunity to pick up shares of stock at a friendlier price every time there is an ECQ (Enhanced Community Quarantine).  Historically, the prices go down during the ECQ and when the ECQ has done it’s damage to the economy, and also accomplished its purpose in containing the Pandemic, prices start to rise again.  Personally, I believe so strongly in listed Philippine companies to weather this long, lingering economic storm.  I love rooting for the ‘little guy’ (i.e. small businesses). But, in this COVID-19 pandemic, the little guy will get crushed and will have a really hard time recovering, if at all. On the other hand, the big guy (i.e. large listed companies) stand a chance to recover quickly and become stronger than they have ever been (gaining market share of the little guys?).  While I don’t like this scenario, we know it’s
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PH due for a recession? But, where's all this money coming from?

I feel like this question has been thrown around for the last five years or so.   What I see 'on the ground' is that real estate prices are insanely high, there is so much investment into new businesses (SMEs to large enterprises) and a lot more conspicuous consumption from a thriving new middle and upper middle class.  Where's all the money coming from? One significantly successful artist friend of mine said he personally sees a lot of success in his industry coming from China.  He recently participated in an exhibition in HK and spoke well of Chinese interest in art and how it is buoying the prices of art even in the Philippines.  It's a similar story in Real Estate.  The consensus had been that real property prices were ripe for a correction this year (2018).  However, there was no such correction. Industry experts pointed to the influx of Chinese immigrants in Manila as to why instead of a correction, there was actually a price increase! But, could all this mo
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PH shares still going down

On its website, ABS-CBN news published an article stating that PH shares have fallen for the seventh time in eight trading days.  The stock market is said to be predictive.  And, if this bear market is indeed predictive, then the outlook of the Philippine economy may be not as sunny as we thought.   
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The Philippine Peso (PHP) is going down and inflation is going up

The Philippine Daily Inquirer reported that the Philippine peso has hit a 12 year low. The Philippine Star reported that the BSP will likely raise interest rates gain due to the very high inflation we are seeing now. Based on what the current administration is doing (spending a lot of borrowed money), I think this trend will continue. I personally foresee Php100 to 1USD within the next couple of decades. My simple analysis is that if both trends continue, holding stocks of company's with good performance and whose operations are not sensitive to the exchange rate, will be good in the long run.  The peso is falling fast both in exchange rate and in terms of inflation.  In terms of avoiding inflation, holding private assets will in some significant ways be better than holding cash, or other interest bearing cash deposits/investments.  In other words, if the peso is sinking, theoretically, stocks are good place to put some of your money.  So playing out the theory that the
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Betting on Bitcoin

So, it's probably one of the most unexciting times to talk about or get into Bitcoin.  And yes, for trading, now is probably not a great time to jump in. Others say, it's a bad idea, period.  Take for instance, Mr. Warren Buffet.  He called Bitcoin "rat poison" two years ago.  Now, he calls it "rat poison squared."  Even those who love Bitcoin, like Mr. Tone Vays (a well known Bitcoin vlogger) believes that we're in a bear market for Bitcoin and he believes it is quite possible that the bear market will drag on for a while.  But, for me, I think Bitcoin is a great bet, period.  It's price is somewhere in the PHP400,000 (USD7,500) mark.  The world is far from truly understanding the impact and potential of Bitcoin.  And, I am referring only to Bitcoin.  I am not talking about cryptocurrencies or about the love affair the business world is having with the idea that blockchain is as big as the internet. I do not believe that crypto currencies i
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Passive income from dividends

"Buy things that put money into your pocket (not things that take money out)" paraphrased from Rich Dad, Poor Dad by Kiyosaki So, it's easy to think of things that take money out of your pocket like an extra car or vacation home, etc.  But, what will put money in your pocket? One thing I took a look at today was dividends on stocks. These two articles are a nice source of data (though unverified, it can give an idea of what's out there): http://www.filipinoinvestor.com/2017/07/top-25-highest-dividend-yield-in.html https://www.entrepreneur.com.ph/run-and-grow/financial-adviser-5-dividend-paying-stocks-every-saver-can-invest-in-to-earn-up-to-8-p-a-a23-20170509-lfrm For preferred stocks, the highest yield in the Philippines is about 8% by LRP (Liesure Resorts Philippines).  If we factor in inflation of about 4%, that only leaves about 4% income per year.  Then, of course, don't forget to take note of the taxes on that (10% I think). For common shares, i
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