ouch! MER closes at Php61!

All the attacks on Meralco have not been kind to its stock price. This is a good illustration of how market perception is the main driver of the stock market. The fundamentals haven't changed yet, and even if they do, I don't think they will change much. With the stock price all over the place over the past months, I see only two major concerns, only one of which I find to be worth any serious thought.

The only major threats I'm considering are
1) government takeover 2) private industrial power supply.

Anent the first concern, it seems government doesn't really have that much determination to gain control over Meralco. I think it's because they know they can't really bring rates down by gaining control of Meralco. While they blame Meralco, I'm sure they know the real culprit for high energy prices in the Philippines isn't Meralco. As government doesn't have a reputation of effeciency, any rumor of a govenrment take over can send many investors scurrying away for a safe haven.

The second concern of mine is one that I believe is more likely and has great potential to hurt Meralco. Major industry players have hinted that they are considering supplying their own power. If I were in their shoes, I would seriously consider the same. If the large industries choose to supply their own power, that will significantly hurt Meralco's customer base. Industrial customer's account for a major portion of Meralco's revenues.

This stock hasn't failed to provide excitement, both the good and the bad kind. I doubt that will stop doing so.

Anyone looking for a risky bargain? Here is one. Remember this stock price was pushing twice it's value late last year. Since then, Meralco's profits have gone up.

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