Common Sense Trading - A Blue Jeans Approach to Philippine Stock Market Trading

I feel like this question has been thrown around for the last five years or so.   What I see 'on the ground' is that real estate prices are insanely high, there is so much investment into new businesses (SMEs to large enterprises) and a lot more conspicuous consumption from a thriving new middle and upper middle class.  Where's all the money coming from? One significantly successful artist friend of mine said he personally sees a lot of success in his industry coming from China.  He recently participated in an exhibition in HK and spoke well of Chinese interest in art and how it is buoying the prices of art even in the Philippines.  It's a similar story in Real Estate.  The consensus had been that real property prices were ripe for a correction this year (2018).  However, there was no such correction. Industry experts pointed to the influx of Chinese immigrants in Manila as to why instead of a correction, there was actually a price increase! But, could all this mo

On its website, ABS-CBN news published an article stating that PH shares have fallen for the seventh time in eight trading days.  The stock market is said to be predictive.  And, if this bear market is indeed predictive, then the outlook of the Philippine economy may be not as sunny as we thought.   

The Philippine Daily Inquirer reported that the Philippine peso has hit a 12 year low. The Philippine Star reported that the BSP will likely raise interest rates gain due to the very high inflation we are seeing now. Based on what the current administration is doing (spending a lot of borrowed money), I think this trend will continue. I personally foresee Php100 to 1USD within the next couple of decades. My simple analysis is that if both trends continue, holding stocks of company's with good performance and whose operations are not sensitive to the exchange rate, will be good in the long run.  The peso is falling fast both in exchange rate and in terms of inflation.  In terms of avoiding inflation, holding private assets will in some significant ways be better than holding cash, or other interest bearing cash deposits/investments.  In other words, if the peso is sinking, theoretically, stocks are good place to put some of your money.  So playing out the theory that the

So, it's probably one of the most unexciting times to talk about or get into Bitcoin.  And yes, for trading, now is probably not a great time to jump in. Others say, it's a bad idea, period.  Take for instance, Mr. Warren Buffet.  He called Bitcoin "rat poison" two years ago.  Now, he calls it "rat poison squared."  Even those who love Bitcoin, like Mr. Tone Vays (a well known Bitcoin vlogger) believes that we're in a bear market for Bitcoin and he believes it is quite possible that the bear market will drag on for a while.  But, for me, I think Bitcoin is a great bet, period.  It's price is somewhere in the PHP400,000 (USD7,500) mark.  The world is far from truly understanding the impact and potential of Bitcoin.  And, I am referring only to Bitcoin.  I am not talking about cryptocurrencies or about the love affair the business world is having with the idea that blockchain is as big as the internet. I do not believe that crypto currencies i

"Buy things that put money into your pocket (not things that take money out)" paraphrased from Rich Dad, Poor Dad by Kiyosaki So, it's easy to think of things that take money out of your pocket like an extra car or vacation home, etc.  But, what will put money in your pocket? One thing I took a look at today was dividends on stocks. These two articles are a nice source of data (though unverified, it can give an idea of what's out there): http://www.filipinoinvestor.com/2017/07/top-25-highest-dividend-yield-in.html https://www.entrepreneur.com.ph/run-and-grow/financial-adviser-5-dividend-paying-stocks-every-saver-can-invest-in-to-earn-up-to-8-p-a-a23-20170509-lfrm For preferred stocks, the highest yield in the Philippines is about 8% by LRP (Liesure Resorts Philippines).  If we factor in inflation of about 4%, that only leaves about 4% income per year.  Then, of course, don't forget to take note of the taxes on that (10% I think). For common shares, i

The Enterprise Ethereum Alliance is the reason why my attention is on ETH (Php44,440 as of this writing). Microsoft, Telus, JPMorgan, Intel, UBS, BP among others are part of the launch members.   The purpose of the organization is to team up and figure out how to use ETH for business.  By "use ETH for business" I'm not referring to those companies investing in ETH or any crypto asset but rather, using the blockchain to improve internal processes. The security of a decentralized network opens up new possibilities for companies that use databases.  I would imagine that it will be of high value to businesses that share databases with third parties or even allow third parties to update the database.  A database covering a network of suppliers for instance or if the company itself is within a network of suppliers, would offer a higher level of trustworthiness if it were running on a blockchain like ETH.  While unrelated to this post, just as an FYI, I'm long on ETH

So, this has been said many times already.  Even then, blockchain is still in the early days and how the decentralized network will change the world still sounds like sci-fi to the general population. Having done some basic research on it, I think it will change the world significantly.  I'm not just talking about the crypto currency craze (a bandwagon which I have been unable to avoid joining). Ethereum's (arguably the #2 crypto currency) method of utilizing the blockchain is making a lot of companies excited. I'm posting this here for posterity. And, for the record:  BTC on coins.ph is at Php601,406 and ETH is at Php44,440.  Also for the record, I'm long on both.